Breaking Point: How Israel Will Drag Lebanon to Civil War over Normalization

By Robert Inlakesh

Thousands of people gathered as Hezbollah called for a sit-in in Beirut. (Photo: video grab)

Israel’s goal is to collapse Lebanon through triggering civil war and any move to normalize ties with Tel Aviv would inevitably trigger chaos.

The Trump administration’s push to force the pro-US government in Beirut to normalize ties with Israel and force Hezbollah to disarm, will lead to civil war. Instead of a “peace” agreement, they would be signing their own nation’s death sentence, especially with the dangers presented to Lebanon’s stability from Syria in such a circumstance.

The new Lebanese administration, led by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, has revealed itself to be operating under the thumb of Washington. Despite countless claims of Iranian influence inside the Eastern Mediterranean nation, it is clearly the United States that calls the shots.

On Monday, Thomas Barrack, who serves as Trump’s ambassador to Turkiye and envoy to Syria, expressed that he was “unbelievably satisfied” with Lebanon’s responses to US requests to bring Beirut into the fold of the so-called “Abraham Accords” and disarm Hezbollah.

Back in May, the Lebanese Prime Minister stated that “Normalization is part and parcel of the peace we would like to see tomorrow and not the day after”, in an interview with CNN. His statements were so disconnected with the popular will of his nation’s population that the reporter interviewing him was stunned and picked up on some of his flawed logic.

However, these positions that have been expressed towards the US Trump administration are deeply unpopular with the vast preponderance of the Lebanese public. Let alone the Shia population which supports Hezbollah and the Amal Movement.

Time and time again, Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem has expressed his Party’s position regarding the handing over of weapons to the State. He has made it crystal clear that such a move is off the table and that “the resistance will not lay down its weapons”, especially when faced with the ongoing Israeli violations of Lebanon’s territorial integrity.

While US think tanks, politicians and American corporate media all speak of Lebanon as ripe for a normalization agreement due to the destruction of Hezbollah, many going as far as to claim that the Party is finished, the reality on the ground paints another picture entirely.

Hezbollah, contrary to what is pushed for public consumption on the media, is far from over and has been mobilizing its base of support since the conclusion of the so-called ceasefire agreement in November of last year. Since then, Israel has committed nearly 4,000 violations of the ceasefire, as Hezbollah has evacuated countless positions in southern Lebanon and not responded to the daily attacks committed by the Israelis.

Although some see this as capitulation, it is clear that the Party has been seeking to weed out collaborators, spies and reposition certain military assets that were revealed previously or exposed to strikes.

Simultaneously, as the Lebanese government entertains normalization and Hezbollah gears up for future confrontations, with its 100,000 man strong force, the Syrian government in Damascus is closely coordinating with the Israelis on so-called “security issues”.

It is being reported across Israeli Hebrew media that Damascus will sign some kind of an interim agreement with Tel Aviv, its goal being to curb Iranian influence in the region and combat Hezbollah, along with the Palestinian groups.

Already, since the new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham government came to power in Syria, its militia forces have launched around a dozen assaults against Lebanese territory. Many hardline Salafist factions have been involved in such fighting. In addition to this, there is an active campaign to crack down on black market weapons transfers to Hezbollah, which have been frequent due to the collapse of the Syrian State.

The new government in Damascus dissolved the Syrian Arab Army and Security Forces, replacing them with members of its various allied militia forces. The country’s state is one of instability, where local factions, gangs and militias have more control over much of the country than the official government does.

This is all important, because given the growing ties between Ahmed al-Shara’a’s new government and Israel, it could eventually translate to a direct threat to Lebanese territorial sovereignty.

Israel’s goal is to collapse Lebanon through triggering civil war and any move to normalize ties with Tel Aviv would inevitably trigger chaos. It is even possible that an alliance could be formed between the right wing Lebanese Forces party, Israel and Salafist militia groups, to fight against Hezbollah, an unprecedented situation which the Lebanese Army would not be able to contain.

The main reason behind the theatre claiming Hezbollah to have been defeated is for Israeli public consumption, also providing the United States with the semblance of a regional victory against Iran.

In reality, the Hezbollah base was heavily impacted by the war, as was the wider public who sided with their nation’s resistance to Israel’s attack. The Shia are also traumatised by the indiscriminate pager attack and death of Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, for which they do not feel revenge have been dealt.

Israel knows all of this information and likely understands that Hezbollah will eventually seek to launch a devastating assault on it. Which is why the prospect of a renewed attack on Lebanon is highly likely in the coming months.

The US and Israeli surveillance over the nation has greatly intensified since the end of the 12-day Iran-Israel battle, indicating they are trying to collect more intelligence to replenish target banks.

Reports have emerged recently, originating with al-Akhbar News, that the Lebanese government has been discussing disarmament with Hezbollah. An informed source in Lebanon told the Palestine Chronicle that this is true, but that it is simply a formality and “won’t go anywhere”. This aligns with the Party’s public position. Despite being very friendly with the current administration in Beirut, Hezbollah is adamant that its weapons will remain.

The reason why normalisation talks are even on the books at this point, is because a large portion of the Lebanese senior leadership are stooges of the US and Washington is seeking to sow division inside Lebanon. The goal is to ultimately destroy Lebanon, allowing for a similar disintegration of the State as has occurred in Syria.

(The Palestine Chronicle)

– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine. He contributed this article to The Palestine Chronicle.