Israel’s Gaza ‘Nuclear Option’ and Why It Is Losing The War – Analysis

By Robert Inlakesh

What appears to be the actual strategy here is to coerce the civilian population through starvation; as for any ground maneuvers, it is difficult to see how their forces will prove successful against the Palestinian resistance.

Threat after threat, plan after plan, yet the Israeli military still fails to achieve victory on any front it fights on. None of its publicly stated objectives have been achieved in Gaza, aside from the mass murder of civilians and now, for the 19th consecutive month the Israeli leadership floats new “total victory” plans that change by the hour.

Since March, when Israel decided to collapse the Gaza ceasefire agreement and impose an all out starvation policy on the civilian population of the besieged territory, various threats regarding a “second phase” of the war have been made from senior Israeli officials.

One day, Israel and US President Donald Trump are discussing American ownership of the territory, the next day Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to convince his population that Israel needs to occupy Gaza.

In terms of “plans”, we have heard everything from so-called safe zones in northern Gaza to a new Rafah mass refugee camp.

In terms of Israeli soldiers who will participate in the renewed large-scale assault on the civilian populated areas of the Gaza Strip, we are informed that 100,000 reserves are needed, then we hear 20,000 have been recruited and that 60,000 have received orders to be ready for deployment. But wait, of the 60,000, an unknown number will be deployed along the Lebanon-Syria border area?

Threats of new magical bombs that will somehow defeat Hamas arriving also periodically emerge, while Netanyahu saber rattles and threatens to invade Lebanon, Syria and launch attacks on Iranian nuclear sites. All the while, Israel’s prime minister brags about all of his victories thus far in the ongoing seven-front war.

Now Israel has apparently approved the next phase of fighting in Gaza, which Hebrew media channels discuss day-in and day-out, throthing at the mouths as they ponder what power their genocidal military can summon next. Yet, none of them can actually produce any proof of what is to come.

Israel’s Strategic Defeat

In the fog of war, emotions run high on all sides. After the mass murder of tens of thousands of children in Gaza, the utter destruction of the territory’s infrastructure, the murder of key leaders within the Palestinian political movements and the pager attacks in Lebanon, followed by the assassination of Hezbollah’s senior leadership, Israel managed to convince the world it was in control.

Yet, despite the propaganda that is telling the world about Hamas and Hezbollah being defeated, neither of them are. Both are degraded, but far from defeated. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Ansarallah only grows stronger and is now capable of striking Ben Gurion airport directly.

Iran, Hezbollah, Ansarallah, the Palestinian factions and even Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have not been defeated, not even close. Israel has been carrying out an all out war with full US, UK and European support for 19 months and only has dead civilians and assassinations to show for it.

But what about Syria? Well, Syria never became a front in the war until the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the new government is not even viewed as serious enough to engage with at this point from the Israeli perspective.

Although Ahmed al-Shara’a repeatedly indicates his willingness to normalize ties with Israel, the agenda to expand Israeli territorial control and balkanize Syria is more important than even entertaining collaboration at this time.

Meanwhile, Israeli officials claim at this point that their escalation in Gaza is akin to the “nuclear option” and that they will only go ahead with it if there is no ceasefire/prisoner-exchange reached within a two-week period; coinciding with the end of Donald Trump’s tour of the region.

From what we can currently gather, the so-called phase 2 plan will involve the expulsion of Gaza’s population into the south of the strip. There has also been talk about using private companies to distribute aid to Gaza’s population when they have been driven into an area near Rafah. There are also threats to destroy even more of the territory’s infrastructure.

Analyzing what we can from the leaks and statements of military officials, it would seem like they are seeking to perform a mass ethnic cleansing once again.

Yet, if the idea of private companies being used to distribute humanitarian aid is any indication of what is to come, it is that the Israeli military doesn’t have the soldiers necessary, nor can it trust them, to take over the distribution of aid.

What appears to be the actual strategy here is to coerce the civilian population through starvation; as for any ground maneuvers, it is difficult to see how their forces will prove successful against the Palestinian resistance.

This is especially the case given the fact that over 100,000 reservists refused to answer their deployment calls, while soldiers serving in Israel’s Golani and Givati Brigades were deployed with only four months training. Cases even emerged a few weeks ago of a lack of meal supplies for Israeli soldiers in Gaza.

In addition to the lack of manpower and motivation, there is also the crisis in tanks and armoured personnel carriers. While Israel certainly has the power to summon a major offensive in Gaza, this could detract from their defensive ground capabilities along the northern front.

As it continues to aggress against Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon, any offensive from the north may overwhelm them in such a scenario. There is also the issue of managing the West Bank, a drain on their armed forces.

Furthermore, the domestic political situation is growing more and more tense by the month. This, on top of the economic devastation inflicted on the Israeli economy, is squeezing the state, while a constant flow of US supplied munitions is needed in order to keep the multi-front daily bombings going.

The whole world has unified in their shared disgust at the Israeli regime’s actions, international norms and law have been shattered, while decision makers in Tel Aviv continue to expand their wars across various fronts.

Another strong indicator of Israel’s weakness are the extreme measures that are being taken in Western nations by their supporters and expatriates, who use their investments and lobby power to dismantle constitutional and legal rights, axing free speech.

Although this may feel as if the Israelis hold a lot of power, it is indicative of the fear that runs through the Zionist movement. They have lost the debate and cannot win the argument, so they censor and use force to put down dissent.

In addition to this, consider the blowback involved in Israel’s extreme criminality. Take Hezbollah for example, previously a very restrained and shrewd political party, its pragmatism was somewhat dependable. No more will this be the case in future conflicts. In Syria, one wrong move could trigger action against Israel.

The Syrian conflict is completely unpredictable and the more the Israelis intervene, the higher the chances that something goes out of hand there.

As for the Palestinian people, the amount of trauma that has been inflicted will never fade. The future brings nothing but resistance and an unwavering desire to sacrifice for the sake of achieving justice.

Everyone in Gaza has lost someone they love, everyone. Very few will settle with the idea that they died in vain. The Palestinians have no option but to continue their struggle and they will, no matter what happens next.

If Israel really wants to take on Iran, this will only accelerate the process whereby they conclusively lose the ongoing war.

Take the names out of the equation for a moment. Imagine I told you that the strongest military power amongst its neighbours, with the full support of the worlds top superpower, fought for 19 months and couldn’t defeat a single armed militia group, including one they fully besiege and whose people they are committing a genocide against.

Then that power claimed it was winning, despite losing international support, facing countless legal challenges and tanking its own economy, simultaneously plunging itself into domestic strife, because it carried out some assassinations and an explosive pager attack. Objectively, Israel has performed in a way that is beyond pathetic.

(The Palestine Chronicle)

– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine. He contributed this article to The Palestine Chronicle.