Why Israel’s Regime Change War on Iran Could Trigger Its Own Demise – Analysis
By Robert Inlakesh
While I argued that Israel would launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, while also attempting assassinations of senior officials, their initial assault went way beyond what could have been imagined.
Late last week, Israel launched an unprovoked illegal war of aggression against Iran. The original goal was likely to trigger a battle that could be contained, but now it appears as if the goal is an attempted regime change operation. If the US-Israeli alliance truly seeks to destroy Iran, an unimaginable situation is afoot.
As the situation is constantly developing, making precise predictions of anything is a fruitless exercise, yet all the tell-tale signs that led to the war we see today can help us better understand the bigger picture.
For the past few months, I have written articles here for Palestine Chronicle in which I argued that Israel would lead an attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, also noting that the alleged “feud” between Donald Trump and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu was nothing more than theatre.
I note this, not to try and brag about a prediction, as I am far from the only one who came to this conclusion, but in order to highlight my reasoning, which could also provide some clarity amidst the ongoing war against Iran.
When reading what pro-war think tanks in Washington DC were saying, it was clear that across the board the message was more or less uniform: Iran is weak, now is the time to strike their nuclear sites in a containable battle.
The Heritage Foundation, which is the most influential think tank over the Trump administration, published a 6-page brief on May 22, in which it stated that Israel and the US can “effectively end Iran’s nuclear program without significant civilian casualties” and “deter significant retaliation.”
It is no coincidence that it employed the language “peace through strength” in the brief’s title, which is precisely the rhetoric of the Trump administration today.
Then there were the pro-Israel think-tanks like the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) and the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), both instrumental in pushing the US into its illegal regime change war on Iraq back in 2003.
Both of these think tanks said basically the same thing. Even the Atlantic Council was pushing anti-Iran propaganda, aimed at collapsing the US-Iran nuclear negotiations.
In addition to this, reading between the lines of both Trump’s and Netanyahu’s statements, it became clear that the US was going to allow the Israelis to lead the attack on Iran. On the other hand, Israel’s ground operation in Gaza had proven to be a flop and demonstrated a lack of ground capabilities.
The Israelis sought to fight their “7 front war”, which Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to take to “total victory”, yet he hadn’t managed to destroy any of the adversaries he was at war with, and instead faced intense internal pressure.
The Israeli prime minister pushed all nay-sayers out of the circles of power, replacing them with yes men and personal allies, all to ensure he runs the executive decision-making.
So Where Could This All Go?
While I argued that Israel would launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons program, while also attempting assassinations of senior officials, their initial assault went way beyond what could have been imagined. Therefore, my previous analysis is wrong in its conclusions.
In a bid to score an opening propaganda victory, while also throwing the Iranian military’s chain of command into disarray, Israel blew up civilian infrastructure in Tehran. Tel Aviv succeeded at assassinating senior Iranian commanders and, to date, ten nuclear scientists, but also committed civilian massacres while doing so. This changed everything.
The images of women and children trapped under rubble, the video of a dead toddler lying in the streets of Tehran, these will now never leave the minds of the Iranian people.
At the time, I spoke to four military analysts, three of whom were formerly part of the US military, all of them gave estimates that Iran was going to take between 2 to 5 days to recover from the initial blow, as a conservative estimate.
Shockingly, the Iranians managed to not only replace their slain leaders and get their air defences back online, but also launch a devastating missile attack on Tel Aviv, all within 15 hours.
The indiscriminate nature of Israel’s attacks has killed around 400 Iranians, most of whom are civilians. This has triggered a response inside Iran, even from opponents of the government, where the people are now standing in opposition to the Israeli attack.
Twice now, the son of the deposed Shah of Iran, overthrown in a popular revolt back in 1979, has made addresses desperately calling upon Iranians to overthrow the government. So far, despite many old videos being shared online, no anti-government protests have occurred.
The Shah’s son even stunned the BBC by defending the bombing of his own people, simply claiming Israel wasn’t intending to kill civilians. He is overtly a puppet of Israel and the US. Most of his supporters are concentrated in the Iranian diaspora and some wealthy suburbs of Tehran.
It appears as if Iran’s opening series of strikes against Israel shook them to the core, as all previous estimates had hedged upon Iranian restraint, which seems to have been thrown to the wind when the second civilians were killed in Tehran.
Although the Israelis could well score more tactical victories on the ground in Iran, this conflict thus far has demonstrated that the Islamic Republic is militarily superior. In fact, if it weren’t for the constant flow of American weapons and logistical support, the Israelis would be incapable of continuing their offensive campaign.
The one area where the regime in Tel Aviv certainly flourishes, however, is in the intelligence sphere. Thousands of spies and paid agents appear to be on the Mossad payroll, which has been revealed since the beginning of the war.
These Iranian collaborators with Israel have carried out drone, spike-guided missile, and even car bombing attacks. Another activity that these agents are engaged in is setting fires during Israeli attacks to make it seem as if the air assaults are bigger and more successful than they truly are.
What happens next is somewhat limitless in its scope, but it is important to note that any US involvement may not end up actually dealing any kind of decisive blows to Iran. In fact, all indications here point towards Tehran being able to quickly recover from an American assault.
When the US used its B-2 bombers to drop bunker-busting munitions on missile bases in Yemen, they failed to destroy them. In Iran, these B-2s will have to face much more sophisticated air defense systems that could force them to fire their missiles from further distances and make the attacks less effective. In Yemen, the US still failed, despite there being no threat to shoot down their aircraft.
Iran, on the other hand, has many cards that it hasn’t played. Hezbollah and the Iraqi PMU are yet to enter the war, oil continues to be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and American bases in the region remain unscathed by Iranian missiles.
There is still a possibility that this could end through a diplomatic settlement, but the chance is indeed slim for a range of reasons right now. So, instead, escalation appears to be the current trajectory.
Either Israel is in total meltdown mode, or is poised to implement the next steps in a well-oiled plan alongside the US. All indications now point to option one, which is why the US may also be dragged in.
The Iranians possess enormous stockpiles of ballistic missiles and can fight a long, drawn-out war of attrition if necessary. Israel, on the other hand, will be almost completely out of air defense missiles within two weeks and completely open to wave after wave of new model ballistic missiles.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is already releasing statements claiming to be responding in retaliation for the massacres inflicted on the people of Gaza. If any negotiated settlement occurs, it is very possible that Tehran could include a Gaza ceasefire as one of its conditions.
If this transforms into a broader regional war, eventually both Hamas and Hezbollah will play a greater role, as will Yemen’s Ansarallah and the Iraqi PMU. It is not an exaggeration to say that instead of regime change in Tehran, the regime in Tel Aviv could be the one facing collapse. There is also, on the flip side, the danger of Israel suddenly using nuclear weapons.
The true goal of Israel has always been regime change in Iran. Yet, regional and international powers will not support this. Russia, China, Turkiye, and Pakistan have a vested interest in preventing Iran from becoming a new Syria or Libya.
Instead of preventing Iran from producing a nuclear weapon, this conflict could indeed do the very opposite, driving a nation that was not pursuing the bomb to acquire it for defensive purposes. Either way, this was a reckless and dangerous illegal war of aggression launched by the Israelis, one that will not likely end well for them.
(The Palestine Chronicle)
– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine. He contributed this article to The Palestine Chronicle.
If I was President I would declare martial law, put dual citizens in camps, hang AIPAC and their senators for treason, and drone the knesset. That's just day one. What do the Jews think is going to happen when their Boomer Golem is dead? Is that why these criminals are so hysterical lately?